Are we approaching the autumn of the Arab Spring?

The symbol of a revolution ... Crowded squares like Cairo's Tahir initiated a movement that has trespassed frontiers.

The initial euphoria caused by the Arab Spring is now giving way to a more sober assessment of the situation. Is democracy finally going to succeed in the Arab world?

To prosper, a democracy requires a society where political and economical differences are not extreme and where citizens know that responsibility and respect always come before freedom. Alas, this rarely is the case in places where “revolutions” have just happened, as they often require a deep economic transformation and a cooling-down of all rancor. And this is a long-term, intergenerational project, say Kristian Coates Ulrichsen and David Held at openDemocracy.

The course of events since the dramatic ousting of Presidents Ben Ali and Mubarak from power in Tunisia and Egypt, and subsequently Colonel Gaddafi in Libya, suggest that we may be witnessing a transition of elites rather than a democratic revolution. (…) As spring and summer turn to autumn, the progression of the Arab Spring appears very uneven and likely to produce highly differentiated outcomes, but should nevertheless be seen as a transformative first step in a long-term process of change.
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